An Interesting Observation. (with acknowledgments to Jim)

Published with tongue in cheek

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----- Original Message -----

From: Jim

Subject: REPEATER CONTACTS

HOW THE ALAN CURVE IS COSTING YOU REPEATER CONTACTS.

A sociologist specialising in multidisciplinary socio-technological studies has uncovered a phenomenon of interest to amateur repeater users. Mr Peter Alan, 24, of PK Consultancy says that his finding, based on empirical studies, statistical modelling and multiple regression analysis, confirms anecdotal observations of radio amateurs over many years.

Mr Alan studied on-air interaction between repeater users - ie who talked with whom and who ignored whom. Speaking from his renovated Balmain terrace, he said that when it comes to the probability of making contacts on amateur repeaters, a definite pattern existed. He found that when in small towns with very small amateur populations, the probability of a single CQ call on the local repeater being responded to was quite small - a likelihood of 10 percent was typical. As the amateur population serviced by a repeater rose, such as would be the case in more densely populated regions, the probability of contacts increased to approximately 30 to 40 percent.

However, in localities where there was more than about 500 amateurs within a repeater's coverage area (that is the major capital cities) the probability of a contact decreased dramatically, to barely 5 percent. In fact, it was harder to obtain a response to a call in a major capital city than it was in isolated country districts. When this effect is plotted on paper, with the probability of contact being made against town size, a bell-shaped curve is the result. This is popularly known as the 'Alan Curve'.

Mr Alan's analysis is included in a report commissioned by an anonymous group of radio amateurs. He claimed that his paper, titled 'The impact of emerging communications technology on social intercourse' had become a seminal work in the area, and had already been reviewed in several academic journals. Due to the client's inability to pay and the topic's its intellectual significance, Mr Alan generously provided his services pro bono, and waived his usual $1000/day fee. In being asked the reason for this gesture, Mr Alan was somewhat cagey, but said that the study could be regarded as a preliminary exercise, used to refine methodology for a much larger study on the socio-technological implications of Internet usage with the aim of developing a grand post-post modernist sociological theory of discourse.

When quizzed about the practical implications of all this, the consultant said that initiatives to link repeaters may be misguided if the links served major population centres. While usage initially increased, there were signs that many people actually preferred quiet repeaters, populated only by locals, as they were not too distracting. The sound of unfamiliar voices also was discomforting to some surveyed. The response of most of these people was to turn their equipment off whilst at home or mobile. This made it harder than ever before for the amateur passing through to obtain contacts, despite the greater geographical coverage of linked repeater systems. This is because, as repeaters serve larger populations, the probability that a given listener would reach for his or her microphone fell, confirming the Alan hypothesis.

However the above comments are not only applicable to linked repeaters; stand-alone devices serving a major centre are also affected.

While repeaters could carry more traffic than they currently do, this point is seldom reached; individuals either turn off, or break up into small self-contained tribes with their own repeaters or simplex frequencies.

Mr Alan foresaw the day when any proposed repeater linking projects, as well as being subject to all the usual band plan, frequency and site compatibility checks, were required to have a social impact study done prior to approval. For such work, starting at $1000 a day, Mr Alan is sure to be indispensable.

I wish to point out that Mr Alan is purely a fictional character. He was invented due to a shortage of contributed material from real, live amateurs!

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